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Tropical Storm Forecast center.
Tropical Cyclone Information

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site is to convey only general information the data may not be accurate or up to date. Do not use this data for decision making. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. Do Not rely on data presented here, listen and follow all instructions of local and national authorities in your area.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 00:04:57 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272333
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erika, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some slow development of the disturbance will be possible
through the middle of next week while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
...ERIKA SOAKING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.7, -64.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 12A
Issued at 800 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

000
WTNT35 KNHC 272352
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
800 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA SOAKING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
a Tropical Storm Watch for the Central Bahamas.

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from west
of Isla Saona to Punta Palenque.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should
monitor the progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 64.7 West. Erika has
slowed down a little and is now moving westward near 12 mph (19
km/h). Erika should resume a west-northwest track with a slight
increase in forward speed later tonight. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands this evening,
move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the
Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should reach the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight, and these conditions should spread westward
across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

000
WTNT25 KNHC 272036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA
SAONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* MONTSERRAT
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  64.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  64.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  63.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.9N  66.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N  69.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N  72.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.9N  78.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 27.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.5N  80.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

000
WTNT45 KNHC 272037
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center has been wobbling during the day, but the mean
motion is estimated to be 285/13.  In the mean, a west-northwestward
track to the south of a subtropical ridge is likely to continue
for the next couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, the
cyclone should turn to the right along the southwestern and western
periphery of the ridge.  There remains considerable spread in the
track model guidance at days 3 to 5, partly due to differences in
model-predicted intensities at those time frames.  The official
track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.  The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a
synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical
models with a better depiction of the storm's environment.  These
data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS.

Vertical shear is expected to be fairly strong for the next couple
of days and that, along with the interaction with land, should
preclude significant strengthening for the next 48 hours or so.
Beyond that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, and
this could allow for intensification assuming that the cyclone is
not too disrupted by the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola.
Because of the marginal upper-level wind environment and potential
interaction with land over the next few days, there is unusually
high uncertainty in the forecast intensity, especially at days 3 to
5.

The biggest short-term threat posed by Erika is very heavy rainfall
over portions of the Leeward Islands, which should spread over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Friday.  These
rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.  More than 12
inches of rain has fallen in Dominica, with reports of fatalities
in that island.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 16.6N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 17.9N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 19.2N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 20.7N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 22.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 24.9N  78.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 27.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 29.5N  80.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

000
FONT15 KNHC 272036
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015               
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  11(22)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
MAYPORT NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)  13(30)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)  10(30)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)  11(35)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)  11(35)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  19(30)  10(40)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  20(36)   7(43)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  17(36)   6(42)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)   5(34)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)   4(27)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)   6(33)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   8(32)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   8(28)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   9(25)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   9(21)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  16(39)   6(45)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   3(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   8(44)   2(46)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   1(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  34(38)   6(44)   2(46)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  27(43)   1(44)   1(45)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  14(30)   1(31)   1(32)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)  12(12)  25(37)   3(40)   1(41)   X(41)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)  34(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   2(14)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   8( 8)  40(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X  18(18)  12(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34 38  40(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
PONCE          50  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN JUAN       34 64  17(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
SAN JUAN       50  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 80   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 40   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ANTIGUA        34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
AVES           34 73   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
Tropical Storm ERIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 23:56:40 GMT

Tropical Storm ERIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 21:06:49 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
Issued at 532 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
Issued at 0


East Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 00:04:57 GMT

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272318
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jimena, located more than 900 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development early next week while the
system moves to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Summary for Tropical Storm JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
...JIMENA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.4, -118.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.



Tropical Storm JIMENA Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 272031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

...JIMENA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 118.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 118.7 West.  Jimena is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Jimena is expected to become a hurricane
tonight or on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg





Tropical Storm JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 272031
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 118.7W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 118.7W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 118.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.5N 120.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.5N 122.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 124.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.0N 126.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.3N 130.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 118.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 




Tropical Storm JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272031
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

Visible images show that Jimena has several spiral convective bands
emanating away from the center, with the inner bands attempting to
consolidate into a ring of convection.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and UW-CIMSS range between 45 and 55 kt, so the initial
intensity is set at 50 kt.  This estimate is also supported by a
1750 UTC ASCAT-B pass, which showed a 45-50 kt wind barb near the
center.  Jimena is in an environment of very low shear and abundant
moisture, and over sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees
Celsius, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) index now shows
about a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity change during the
next 24 hours.  Due to the very favorable conditions, RI is now
explicitly indicated in the NHC intensity forecast.  Environmental
conditions remain conducive for strengthening after 24 hours, and
Jimena is expected to be a major hurricane from 48 hours through
the end of the forecast period.  Since the statistical models seem
to have been doing a better job than the dynamical models on the
recent intensification rate, the updated NHC intensity forecast is a
blend of the previous forecast and the SHIPS and LGEM solutions.

Jimena has turned westward as expected, with an initial motion of
275/11 kt.  The cyclone remains located on the southern periphery
of a strong mid-level ridge, and this feature should continue
steering Jimena westward for the next 36 hours.  After that time, a
weakness in the ridge is expected to develop, which should cause
Jimena to turn west-northwestward through the end of the forecast
period.  The track guidance agrees on this scenario and is tightly
clustered for the entire forecast period.  The updated NHC track
forecast is close to the model consensus, and the only change from
the previous forecast is a slight southward shift during the first
48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 12.4N 118.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 12.5N 120.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 12.5N 122.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 12.6N 124.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 13.0N 126.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 14.3N 130.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 16.0N 134.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 17.0N 138.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg





Tropical Storm JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 272031
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015               
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     




Tropical Storm JIMENA Graphics
Tropical Storm JIMENA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 20:32:27 GMT

Tropical Storm JIMENA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 21:08:21 GMT



 

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