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Tropical Storm Forecast center.
Tropical Cyclone Information

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site is to convey only general information the data may not be accurate or up to date. Do not use this data for decision making. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. Do Not rely on data presented here, listen and follow all instructions of local and national authorities in your area.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Wed, 20 Aug 2014 03:13:16 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 20 Aug 2014 03:13:16 GMT


East Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Wed, 20 Aug 2014 03:13:16 GMT

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192345
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Satellite data along with ship and buoy observations indicate that
a broad low pressure system has developed several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for this system to develop into a tropical
depression by the end of this week while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart





Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
...KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 19 the center of KARINA was located near 15.9, -135.3 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.



Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 29
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 200235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 135.3W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART






Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 29
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200235
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 135.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 135.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 





Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 29
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 200236
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has redeveloped
near Karina's center, and convective banding features have improved
during the past 6 hours now that the cyclone is moving over a ridge
of warmer sea surface temperatures. The result is that intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to a consensus
T3.0/45 kt, so the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt.

Karina is moving slowly westward or 275/04 kt. There remains no
significant change to the previous reasoning. Karina is forecast to
stall and/or make a small loop in 24 to 48 hours when steering
currents are forecast to weaken considerably. By 72 hours and
beyond, the cyclone is expected to come under the influence of
southwesterly steering flow generated by the very large circulation
of Tropical Storm Lowell, which is currently located well to the
east of Karina. The NHC model guidance is actually in very good
agreement on the development of this rather complex synoptic flow
pattern and eventual interaction between the two tropical cyclones.
The only significant difference since the previous advisory is that
the model guidance envelope has shifted well to the east. The
official forecast track follows suit and has been shifted slightly
to the east, but not nearly as far east as the consensus model TVCE
due to the uncertainty in which direction Karina will move after the
cyclone stalls and/or completes a looping motion.

The outflow from Tropical Storm Lowell is expected to affect
Karina within the next 12 hours, producing modest easterly to
southeasterly vertical wind shear across the cyclone through 72
hours. The result is that little change in intensity is forecast,
although there will likely be some small fluctuations in the
intensity during that time. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is
expected to steadily increase as Karina moves closer to Tropical
Storm Lowell, which should induce steady weakening. By Day 5,
Karina will be moving over 22C SSTs, causing the system to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system. The NHC
intensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and
closely follows the consensus intensity model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 15.9N 135.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart






Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 200236
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014               
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  





Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
Tropical Storm KARINA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 02:59:39 GMT

Tropical Storm KARINA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 03:04:45 GMT



Summary for Tropical Storm LOWELL (EP2/EP122014)
...LOWELL CONTINUING A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 19 the center of LOWELL was located near 18.7, -120.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.



Tropical Storm LOWELL Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL CONTINUING A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 120.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN






Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200233
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 120.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 121.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 122.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 120.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 





Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200234
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There has been little change in the organization of Lowell since
the last advisory, with multiple curved convective bands present
mainly in the southwestern semicircle.  Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 45 kt, and that is also the
initial intensity. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent in all
directions.

The initial motion is now 315/6.  Lowell is expected to move slowly
northwestward during the next 48 hours while a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough digs southward along the California coast and
weakens the subtropical ridge.  The trough should subsequently move
eastward allowing some ridging to rebuild to the north of the
storm. This is expected to cause Lowell to accelerate toward the
west-northwest by the end of the period.  The new forecast track is
an update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the
guidance envelope.  It should be noted that Lowell and Karina are
likely to be close enough to interact by the end of the forecast
period.  At this time, it appears that the smaller Karina should
have only a minor impact on the track of the larger Lowell.

Lowell is expected to remain in a light/moderate vertical wind
shear environment for the next 4 days or so.  For the first 48
hours, the forecast track keeps the cyclone over sea surface
temperatures of 26C-27C.  After that, the temperatures along the
track are expected to decrease to near 22C by 120 hours.  Based
on these factors, the new intensity forecast is the same as the
previous advisory through 48 hours, then shows a slightly faster
weakening thereafter.  The latter part of the intensity forecast is
a little below the intensity consensus and is in best agreement
with the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 18.7N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.1N 121.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 19.6N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 21.5N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 28.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven






Tropical Storm LOWELL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 200233
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014               
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    





Tropical Storm LOWELL Graphics
Tropical Storm LOWELL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 02:36:10 GMT

Tropical Storm LOWELL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 03:05:29 GMT



 

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