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Tropical Storm Forecast center.
Tropical Cyclone Information

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site is to convey only general information the data may not be accurate or up to date. Do not use this data for decision making. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. Do Not rely on data presented here, listen and follow all instructions of local and national authorities in your area.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Tue, 30 Sep 2014 09:15:40 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300519
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located just to the northwest of Bermuda is
producing a few showers and thunderstorms while it moves slowly
northward. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated due to increasingly strong upper-level winds. The low
should move northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed over the next couple of days, and could still
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda this
morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 30 Sep 2014 09:15:40 GMT


East Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Tue, 30 Sep 2014 09:15:40 GMT

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
...RACHEL BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 the center of RACHEL was located near 23.3, -117.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.



Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 24
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.  RACHEL IS
STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
LATE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 24
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300831
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH






Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 24
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300841
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Rachel has lost all of its deep convection, although it is possible
that some sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms could return
to the circulation today.  A couple of recent ASCAT passes missed
the radius of maximum winds, but using a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set, perhaps
generously, at 35 kt.  Southwesterly shear over Rachel is forecast
to become even stronger, more than 30 kt, within a day or so and
continued weakening is expected.  The system should degenerate into
a remnant low in 12-24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus, although just a little higher,
suggesting that the cyclone could weaken even faster than indicated
here.

There has been little movement over the past several hours, which
was anticipated by the track model guidance.  Rachel is in an
environment of weak steering currents, and is expected to remain so
through today.  A weak low-level ridge developing to the northwest
and north is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move
very slowly west-southwestward in 1-2 days, followed by a turn
toward the west.  The official track forecast is close to the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 23.3N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 300833
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    




Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
Tropical Storm RACHEL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 08:38:17 GMT

Tropical Storm RACHEL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 09:04:44 GMT



 

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