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Tropical Storm Forecast center.
Tropical Cyclone Information

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site is to convey only general information the data may not be accurate or up to date. Do not use this data for decision making. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. Do Not rely on data presented here, listen and follow all instructions of local and national authorities in your area.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 15:14:19 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221121
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 22 Sep 2014 15:14:19 GMT


East Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 15:14:19 GMT

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221141
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Polo, located a few hundred miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
have increased and become more concentrated overnight.
Environmental conditions are generally conducive for development,
and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain





Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO (EP2/EP172014)
...POLO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 the center of POLO was located near 22.2, -114.4 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.



Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO Public Advisory Number 26
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

...POLO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 114.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST.  THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND POLO IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN






Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO Forecast Advisory Number 26
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221446
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 114.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 114.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON POLO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF
POLO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSEFP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN







Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO Forecast Discussion Number 26
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221447
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

Polo has been absent of any organized deep convection for more than
12 hours.  Although a few sporadic showers have developed since 0900
UTC over the western half of the circulation, strong east-
southeasterly shear and unfavorable thermodynamic factors should
inhibit any significant return of deep convection.  Based on the
lack of deep convection for some time, the cyclone is being declared
a post-tropical remnant low on this advisory.  The initial wind
speed estimate presumes some spin-down of the vortex since late
yesterday and is lowered to 25 kt on this advisory.  Global models
shows Polo degenerating into an open trough by 48 hours, and so does
the official forecast.

Polo has been moving west-southwestward or 250/07.  The now-shallow
vortex is expected to turn southwestward or south-southwestward
on the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge over the subtropical
eastern Pacific prior to dissipation.  The track forecast is left
of much of the guidance, including the multi-model consensus, given
the already greater southerly component of motion.

For additional information on the remnant low of Polo please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.2N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain






Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 221446
PWSEP2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014               
1500 UTC MON SEP 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               





Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO Graphics
Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2014 14:47:29 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Sep 2014 15:03:47 GMT



 

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