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Tropical Storm Forecast center.
Tropical Cyclone Information

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site is to convey only general information the data may not be accurate or up to date. Do not use this data for decision making. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. Do Not rely on data presented here, listen and follow all instructions of local and national authorities in your area.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Tue, 22 Aug 2017 03:25:29 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and
the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near
Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 22 Aug 2017 03:25:29 GMT


East Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Tue, 22 Aug 2017 03:25:29 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kenneth, located well over 1000 miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea




Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 19.2, -132.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.



Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220239
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN
PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 132.1W
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kenneth was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 132.1 West. Kenneth is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).   A turn toward the
north-northwest at about the same rate of speed is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Kenneth is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea





Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220238
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 132.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 132.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 131.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.4N 132.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 135.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 31.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 132.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
 




Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220240
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Kenneth's previously distinct eye is clouding over as its eye
temperature cools, while the surrounding eyewall convection warms
and weakens. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from TAFB,
SAB, and ADT have dropped and a blend of them suggests an intensity
of 95 kt at 00Z.  Continued deterioration of the convective
structure is justification for maximum winds of 90 kt at advisory
time.  While no recent size observations have been available,
earlier AMSU estimates along with the limited extent of the cold
cloud canopy suggest that Kenneth is a small tropical cyclone with
tropical-storm-force winds extending out about 80 nm from the
center on average.

Kenneth should continue to weaken - perhaps rapidly - under the
influence of cool to cold SSTs, dry and less unstable air, and
increasing southwesterly vertical shear.  Kenneth should likely
lose all of its organized deep convection in 2-3 days, signaling
its transformation to a post-tropical cyclone at that time.  The
official intensity forecast is based upon the tightly packed
dynamical and statistical model guidance and is a bit lower than the
previous advisory.

The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, as it
rounds the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and
toward a mid- to upper-level low farther north.  Over the next
couple of days, Kenneth should turn toward the north-northwest at
about the same rate of speed.  Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical
cyclone, it should turn back toward the northwest and slow its
forward speed within the weak, low-level tradewinds.  The official
track forecast is based upon the usually reliable global and
hurricane dynamical models, minus the substantially slower and to
the left UKMET solution (which has not been performing well thus far
this season).  The new track forecast is slightly northeast of the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 19.2N 132.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 20.4N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 24.0N 134.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 25.6N 135.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 28.5N 136.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  26/0000Z 30.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z 31.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea





Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 220239
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  4   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
25N 135W       34  X   5( 5)  35(40)  26(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
25N 135W       50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
25N 135W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
30N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   1(16)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
30N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA                                                  




Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
Hurricane Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 02:46:25 GMT

Hurricane Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 03:25:11 GMT



 

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