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Tropical Storm Forecast center.
Tropical Cyclone Information

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site is to convey only general information the data may not be accurate or up to date. Do not use this data for decision making. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. Do Not rely on data presented here, listen and follow all instructions of local and national authorities in your area.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:09:06 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220508
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located well to east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Jul 22 the center of TWO was located near 12.2, -46.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

000
WTNT32 KNHC 220832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 46.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO
THREE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

000
WTNT22 KNHC 220831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0900 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  46.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  46.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  45.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N  48.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N  51.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N  54.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.5N  58.4W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N  46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220832
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery.  The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.

As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening.  Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days.  The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle.  As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 12.2N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 12.5N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 13.0N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.5N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.5N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

000
FONT12 KNHC 220832
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
Tropical Depression TWO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 08:33:42 GMT

Tropical Depression TWO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:04:49 GMT


East Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Courtesy of NHC - NOAA Updated: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:09:06 GMT

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220514
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula have become more concentrated
since this afternoon. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system
is possible during the weekend as it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown





There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:09:06 GMT



 

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